NUCLEAR AMBIGUITY AS A STRATEGY
Nuclear ambiguity strategy would appear to be a wise move, especially when taking into consideration, millions that would be spent on the research, assembly, manufacture, the considerable additional cost of delivery systems and even more, enormous risks in the safekeeping and storage of atomic weapons.
Nuclear ambiguity provides a cover from international sanctions even while acting as a deterrent against nuclear states. Israel has managed the art of deception and ambiguity with respect to the existence of nuclear arsenal in its armory quite successfully since decades.
Post Hiroshima and Nagasaki the world has realized, at least the saner nations of the world, (Pakistani generals and terrorist organisations excluded) , that nuclear option is no option.
However, the risks involved in this policy cannot be underestimated even with a nuclear power state which has signed a non-proliferation treaty, and issues statements of a ‘No First Use Policy’.
In the real world, malicious intentions have been concealed by bland statements of peace and friendship.
VECTORS, CARRIERS AND DELIVERING MECHANISMS
In the realm of nuclear weapons, Triad [1]is being increased to Quad with the addition of Space as another Vector.
“In a crisis or conflict, pre-launch ambiguity could create serious risks of escalation by leading one state to misjudge its opponent’s willingness to use nuclear weapons or that opponent’s nuclear or nonnuclear capabilities.” [2]
Attempts by Syria and Iran to produce nuclear weapons with the help of Pakistan North Korea, and China have been stymied more than once by the Western powers and Israel.
[1] Nuclear triad, a three-sided military-force structure consisting of land-launched nuclear missiles, nuclear-missile-armed submarines, and strategic aircraft with nuclear bombs and missiles
[2] Nuclear use could be a direct result; or in less extreme circumstances, an escalating series of moves and countermoves — threats, signals, and conventional military operations — could plausibly result in nuclear use. While estimating the likelihood of such escalation is extremely difficult (if not impossible), the potential dangers are so extraordinary that the risks demand attention. After all, a conflict that turned nuclear could cause catastrophic societal destruction, including deaths numbering in the tens, or even hundreds, of millions.” https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/09/introduction-pub-81447
Drawbacks of Nuclear Ambiguity (Danger)
Today with a variety of delivery systems, ‘Triad’ and tactical nuclear weapons, the need for clarity on presence of nuclear warheads and their detection in a missile has become a complicated process.
Speed of processing information and decision-making is being reduced with the increasing velocities of projectiles. It is an impossible task in the case of ground launched Tactical nuclear weapons which can be based on mobile carriers in action, in or near a battlefield.
“Mischaracterization can lead to a false positive (misidentifying a nonnuclear weapon as a nuclear one) or a false negative (misidentifying a nuclear weapon as a nonnuclear one).”
There have been occasions when there has been a false positive (misidentifying a nonnuclear weapon as a nuclear one), and the world has come close to a nuclear disaster.
Another major area of concern is the Prescence of a nuclear warhead, when only a conventional weapon is expected to be used. Remember Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The nuclear weapons were flown in ordinary B1 bombers, with only a few alterations. The Japanese never expected to be hit with nuclear weapons.
The risk of a catastrophic repeat should not be underestimated.
NUCLEAR PAKISTAN REALITIES
It is a fact that Pakistan has derived much mileage from its possession of a nuclear weapons arsenal, selling the idea of ‘Islamic Bombs’, a nuclear umbrella guaranteed by Pakistan to all Muslim states, especially the Arabs.[1]
Countries possessing nuclear weapons, from USA to India, (except Pakistan) had clearly ruled out ‘First Use’ option. India, which had for decades held that it is against use the nuclear option, was compelled to make a statement that any attack on India with a nuclear weapon, irrespective of its type, power, placement, and delivery will attract retaliation at unacceptable level.
This had to be pronounced publicly since Pakistani generals and statesmen had been rattling its nuclear defence arsenal regularly against India almost as a routine and had gone into producing Tactical nuclear weapons. [2]
Ambiguities do not always deter states which are motivated but constrained due to international pressures from acting against neighboring states but feel free to support non state actors and motivated individuals to operate in the grey zone between peace and war.
“The state and non-state actors can be persistent in launching broad-based low-level nonmilitary actions with hazy attribution that do not clearly violate international laws and norms”. They may even resort to “raising the level to moderate aggression but which falls below conventional thresholds”. These can occur with little or no warning, Pakistani attacks on Mumbai, Pulwama and Pathankot would come into this category.
The more aggressive direct and threatening military operations as seen 1965,1971, Parliament attack, and Kargil may not have been undertaken if India had been confident enough to communicate its determination to reply swiftly and firmly to cause extensive and unacceptable damage.
Pakistan has more than 170 nuclear warheads.[3] It is also producing Tactical nuclear weapons.
[1] The Pakistan’s Chagai-I nuclear test series was a single nuclear test conducted in 1998.
[2] India’s nuclear doctrine can be summarized as follows:
Building and maintaining a credible minimum deterrent;
i. A posture of “No First Use” nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere;
ii. Nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage. https://archive.pib.gov.in/release02/lyr2003/rjan2003/04012003/r040120033.html#:~:text=A%20posture%20of%20%22No%20First,designed%20to%20inflict%20unacceptable%20damage.
[3] approximately 170 warheads. Analysis of commercial satellite images of construction at Pakistani army garrisons and air force bases shows what appear to be newer launchers and facilities that might be related to Pakistan’s nuclear forces. We estimate that Pakistan now has a nuclear weapons stockpile of approximately 170 warheads (See Table 1).
Even a casual study of the of the unnecessary wars initiated against India by rulers and military dictators of Pakistan, from Major Akbar Khan (1947–48, Kashmir), Gen Ayub Khan (1965), Gen Yahya Khan (1971), Gen Musharraf (Kargil 1999), indicates a cavalier attitude and approach to warfare resulting in misery, wasteful death, and destruction.
Today the Pakistani Army is infested with extremists, Jihadis. The terrorist organisations like Lashkar e Tayyiba, Jamaat e Islami, Tablighi Jamat and a score more have a free run in the Pakistani society and many of their cadres have been recruited into the Pakistani army.
The recent incident of sabotage in the Pakistani base,[1] manufacturing nuclear weapons is a precursor of what is to come. Possibility of a Tactical nuclear weapon being taken or simply handed over to a terrorist group is extremely high.
Once in the hands of a terrorist organisation it can be expected to be used. Considering the ideologies of these terrorist organisations, who have resentment against Saudi Arabia for its attempts to modernize, Iran or Syria being Shia can also be targets. Israel, USA, Europe, and India can also be targets.
[1] Pakistani media reported on Friday that Pakistan’s Shaheen-3 missile has allegedly struck a nuclear facility in Dera Ghazi Khan city of the country’s Punjab province. https://sputniknews.in/20231006/pakistan-shaheen-3-missile-strikes-nuclear-facility-after-failed-test-media-4643189.html
“However, this isn’t the first time a Pakistan missile test has gone awry.” “Last year, an unidentified Pakistani missile fell in the Jamshoro city of the South Asian nation’s Sindh province.” Ibid
NUCLEAR PAKISTAN IS A DANGER TO ENTIRE HUMANITY
The total grip of the Pakistani army on the state and society in Pakistan, its entanglement with terrorist organisations, and non-accountability, bodes danger of a nuclear disaster to entire humanity.
All the nations in the world must band together urgently and ensure the removal of all nuclear weapons from Pakistan, disable its capacity to build any more weapons.