Taliban Tyrants Rush To Destroy Afghanistan.
World Ignores Afghan Misery
Afghanistan has been converted into a Powder Keg by Pakistani Army and the Taliban.
Taliban is an Extension of Pakistani Army.
Bomb blasts, murders, mayhem and barbaric acts against innocents have become the norm.
Future of Afghanistan is unpredictable, and the entire International Community is nervous and anxious of the outcome. India is faced with difficult choices.
Difficult to govern in the best of times, the situation in Afghanistan is worsening day by day, with too many vested interests intruding into an already volatile zone.
Afghanistan 2021
Americans have been promised by President Biden that the remaining 2500 odd services personnel will be brought home by 11 September 2021.[1] Post USA withdrawing its remnant security details from Afghanistan there will be a major power vacuum in this most unstable area of the world.
“Afghan officials have sought to downplay the impact of the U.S. military withdrawal on their own forces’ capabilities, but some official U.S. assessments indicate that the withdrawal could lead to Taliban gains on the battlefield. By many measures, the Taliban are in a stronger position now than at any point since 2001, controlling as much as half of the country.”
“The Pakistani deep state, ISI is pushing the Haqqani Network to increase its stake in so-called Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) to retain its leverage on Afghanistan irrespective of the on-going peace process and maintain plausible deniability in future terror attacks in Af-Pak region, according to senior counter-terrorism officials.”
“Ultimately, stability will elude Afghanistan so long as Pakistan seeks to keep the country weak, divided, compliant and free from an Indian menace that exists only in Islamabad’s imagination.”
There is a possibility of an Islamic medieval state coming into being by the end of 2021. Another possibility is of a bloody civil war between the elected government of Afghanistan and extremist organisations like the Taliban, backed by Pakistani army.
Already Pakistan, China and Russia are fishing in the troubled waters, and the atmosphere is further vitiated by the presence of nearly 20 Islamic extremist organisations based in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The Afghanistan National Defence and Security Forces are Not capable of facing the Taliban tide. The strength and combat readiness of the Afghan Army is also deteriorating by the day.
President Ghani has already thrown up his hands and said very clearly that, the Government of Afghanistan will not be able to maintain its army for even for six months without U.S. financial support.
Major Players
Russia, China and Pakistan Iran and India are interested in the early settlement of the Afghan issue. However, the objectives are different.
Pakistan is keen to ensure a pliant and malleable government in Afghanistan. Pakistani army concocted a story of the need for ‘strategic depth’ post 1971, as a fall back for their army in the case of Indian forces over running Punjab.
Pakistan also is unhappy about the good relationship between the Afghan government and India, which has over the decades helped and aided Afghanistan in its major developmental projects. Pakistan does not want any Indian prescence in Afghanista.
A major reason for Pakistani army interests in Afghanistan, is however the fact that Afghanistan is a major producer of opium. Pakistani army in collusion with the Taliban control the manufacture and supply routes. Opium trade rakes in millions to Taliban and Pakistani generals.
China shares a short length of border and has its eyes on the mineral wealth of Afghanistan. It is also aware that it, through which Islamic terrorist organisations can funnel their men into China and create problems in Xinyang province which has seen anti-Chinese sentiments in the past. In fact, more a million Uighur Muslims are already in concentration camps for ‘re-education’.
China had supplied arms, ammunition and even animals for cartage purposes to Taliban in the past. It was a conduit for illicit weapons when USA had roped in Zia ul Haq to raise the Taliban in the 90 s to harass and drive out the Russians. China made millions by sale of weapons to Taliban. USA under Ronald Reagan was grateful to the Chinese for their ‘cooperation’.
Russia is aware of the possibility of Islamic organisations creeping up on its southern borders. It would like a regime which would keep the Islamic terrorist organisations in tight leash.
Moscow, for its part, having kept itself aloof from Afghanistan and Pakistan for years after the Taliban’s ouster, is refocusing on Afghanistan, because Islamist extremism and drug trafficking emanating from Central Asia have re-emerged as major threats to Russia’s national security.
Has Russian Putin Forgotten how China had back stabbed Russia in Afghanistan? It was the arms sold by China that killed Russian troops in Afghanistan.
Iran a Muslim Shia majority state had difficult times in dealing with the Sunni Taliban government in the 90s.However Iran’s anti American policies have sounded off well with Taliban and their relations have since improved. Iran would prefer a quiet and peaceful neighbourhood in Afghanistan.
INDIAN OPTIONS
India has managed since 2001, to do a balancing act in Afghanistan, without getting involved in the military operations lead by NATO forces and USA.
India’s principled support to a democratically elected government, was the foundation of its Afghanistan policy. This policy is coming unravelled with USA coming to a face-saving agreement with an obscurantist and medieval minded Taliban in Feb 2020.
India over the years has committed more than two Billion in infrastructure projects, roads, schools, hospitals and the most important of all the Afghan Parliament building and the Salma Dam.
A Grim Outlook for Afghanistan HARD FACTS
· USA IS withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan. USA and Pakistan have already colluded for the return of Taliban.
· USA and its NATO allies have chosen to ignore the thousands of lives of their soldiers and citizens lost to Taliban attacks.
· Countries like USA, Canada, China etc and the rooftop screamers are not at all worried about the plight of minorities, women and children who will suffer most under the Mullah regime.
All minorities including Sikhs, Shias, Hazaras, Uzbecks etc will be masaccared. (A blast took place near a Sikh crematorium here, injuring a child and disrupting funeral services for the 25 members of the minority community killed in the Gurudwara attack)
· Afghanistan under Taliban will be a Sharia state. All non-Muslim countries are fair game for terrorist activities. India will the first country to face the terrorist fall out.
· USA and NATO allies are resigned to one or more 9/11s.
· USA, and NATO countries have never sided with India in its fight against international terrorism. In fact, West has considered India as a ’sponge’, absorbing much of terrorist actions that would otherwise have targeted the western nations.
· China will encourage Pakistan to utilise Afghan soil to continue its nefarious activities of sponsoring terrorist organisations and using them to destabilise India.
· Indian Government cannot assume the management of its neighbours by a benevolent USA, the way it has been doing so far.
· If Pakistani Taliban government takes over Afghanistan, the political and economic capital India has invested in Afghanistan will go to waste.
·India should not forget the IC-814 hijack that happened in December 1999. It can happen again.
· Taliban has new field commanders. “They love money. They have earned a lot of money. If they have become rich, they want to become businessmen in the future. They need to have friends in the region, outside Afghanistan, to do business with.”
Scenario I
TALIBAN ISKP TAKE OVER AFGHANISTAN BY Dec 2021.
Members of Afghanistan government would have sent their families out of Afghanistan and themselves be looking for safe places to migrate to, India, USA, or UK.
Within a brief time, Afghanistan would be attracting major terrorist organisations around the world. It will become a safe home and training centre for Islamic terrorists from every organisation, around the world.
Pakistani army And ISI will be training these Islamic terrorists and the sending them out on killer missions, all over the globe. in a short time many of these terrorist groups will be inducted into India for the specific purpose of creating havoc and mayhem
Afghanistan will be a major training ground for terrorist organisations like Boko Haram and Hamas.
Taliban has already proclaimed that Sharia law will be in force to Afghanistan. Educational institutions for women run by the government today, will all be shut down and converted into madrasas where only Shramik teachers will be allowed.
There is a distinct possibility that the Chinese will manage to buy off Taliban leaders who have grown rich and soft over the years China will be very happy if Pakistan trains terrorists and send them over to India to ensure that bulk of its forces are kept busy western border.
SCENARIO 2
CIVIL WAR IN AFGHANISTAN
There are nearly twenty Islamic extremist organisations in Afghanistan and the possibility of a civil war breaking out is a major possibility. This will lead to enormous bloodshed complete breakdown of any administration any administration or health services. Afghanistan will be driven back by a century.
Pakistan cannot escape unscathed. Refugees will pour into Pakistan once more. Pakistan will be unable to manage the influx of refugees. Economy of Pakistan already will collapse. This will lead to absolute chaos, not a very welcome situation for anyone in South Asia.
Limited Options are open, but a Proactive approach is the best way forward for India to protects its interests.
· First and foremost, India should shed its Timid approach to international affairs, especially in the neighbourhood.
· India is NOT sharing a common border with Afghanistan. It is a democracy has limited resources.
· India is NOT a Primary player in the Afghan arena. However, the location of Afghanistan, and the possible fallout of it becoming a Talibanized state moulded by Pakistan spells danger for Indian security.
· India will need to expand its diplomatic efforts to counter Pak-Talib cabal.
· India should continue its strategic partnership with the Afghan government. This will ensure that Taliban cannot take over Afghanistan in its entirety.
· India should work diplomatically to highlight the absence of legitimacy of the Talban rule.
· India must continue its support of organisations that will be working to stop Taliban from trampling on Afghan peoples (as in the case of Northern group in the nineties).
· Support to the Elected government of Afghanistan need not prevent talks with any other party in Afghanistan, including the Taliban.
Regarding Taliban: “There are new field commanders. They love money. They have earned a lot of money. If they have become rich, they want to become businessmen in the future. They need to have friends in the region, outside Afghanistan, to do business with.”
Do not be afraid to open dialogues even with Taliban.
Last but not the least, India must learn to be proactive in Afghanistan, not be over idealistic or sentimental in its approach. It must develop the capability and capacity to stand up alone if required to protect its interests.
[1] Afghanistan: Background and U.S. Policy: In Brief
Afghanistan emerged as a significant U.S. foreign policy concern in 2001, when theUnited States, in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, led a military campaign against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban government that harbored and supported it. In the intervening 19 years, the United States has suffered over 22,000 military casualties (including around 2,400 fatalities) in Afghanistan and Congress has
appropriated approximately $144 billion for reconstruction and security forces there. In that time, an elected Afghan government has replaced the Taliban; improvement in most measures of human development is limited; and future prospects of gains remain mixed. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R45122.pdf